FAW Group Li Jun: China's auto low carbon road, new power and new energy

Chief Engineer Li Jun, Chief Engineer of China FAW Group Corporation

Li Jun: The Institute of Engineering and the China Automotive Engineering Society hold such a forum, and I have found it is very important to link the automobile power with low-carbon development.

Maybe five years ago, if we mention that carbon dioxide is still a taboo word in China, then we participated in the Kyoto Protocol and China did not mention carbon dioxide. Now it seems that the word "low carbon" has become the most important principle and the most important direction that our country must follow to develop a national economy, formulate a national strategy, and develop any industry. As the general secretary said, green mountains are also Jinshan Yinshan.

For cars, what are the biggest challenges to the development of the automotive industry in the future? There is no doubt carbon dioxide. My report can clearly explain this issue. I am very grateful to the Chinese Academy of Engineering for funding this project. I have funded a one-million-yuan project on such a very specific issue as car carbon dioxide, which has enabled many of our national enterprises to participate in this project. This project is still in progress. continued. Below I report this item in several ways.

First of all, we want to go from such aspects. One is to introduce the project and introduce the main project content and the most important project results. Although this project is one, the Academy of Engineering is a soft scientific research project. We have combined a large number of engineering achievements to prove that all the data and models predicted by this soft science are correct and can be achieved. Finally, there is also a project development proposal that has been approved by the Academy of Engineering.

Let me talk briefly about the background. Why do we say that carbon dioxide, mainly because the world cannot raise temperature by 2 degrees, must control carbon dioxide at 3.2 trillion tons, and now the world has already ranked 2 trillion tons, and there are still 1.2 trillion tons to be allocated. This means that 195 countries will attend the Paris conference. Our country promises that by 2030 carbon dioxide must be capped and cannot be increased. The unit GDP ratio is 60% to 65% lower than in 2005. In 2016, the Chinese Academy of Engineering set up this project and it will be up to me. This project has brought together some of the most important participants in the domestic group, such as the Tsinghua Automotive Engineering Institute, FAW, Dongfeng, and Beijing Institute of Electrical Engineering, because they want to study the carbon content of electricity, and Jilin University, including Guo Jianshi, is also in this team. This topic is mainly studied from six aspects: architecture, status quo, forecast model, forecast of total volume, proportion of emissions, and evaluation system.

To simply introduce the content, we must establish a low-carbon system for any industry. We must establish such a system to control the entire carbon emission of our country. Simply put, carbon dioxide is divided into two parts, part of which is carbon dioxide in life, and part of carbon dioxide in GDP. If the share of carbon dioxide in life is shared, then there will be no GDP. This is why our country does not participate in the Kyoto Protocol. Because the carbon dioxide in our lives is high and our GDP needs to grow in double digits, there is no way to sign it. Therefore, it is necessary to study various industries and how to reduce carbon in the use process to ensure our country's GDP share. Although the GDP growth rate is 6% to 7%, the base number is large, so we must establish such a system.

What is our current situation? Our current situation is high-carbon, no doubt. The entire carbon dioxide from oil wells to wheels, the entire process of carbon is high and compared with countries with better international carbon emissions, such as Japan, you can see we are several times their. For example, in the use of links, Japan is two points, we are 8.6, many times their number. Compared to the manufacturing process, our manufacturing process is even more than ten times. From a bicycle ratio, we are also more than all these large-volume car companies in the world. The carbon dioxide of our bicycles is high.

It is also higher than the number produced. How do you control it? First of all, we need a model to predict such a complex link, at which point we must work to reduce carbon. Our project team has established a very good data model and used this data model to make predictions. We found that in the main five links, the most important thing is the use of links. The use of carbon dioxide emissions accounted for the majority. If we can not control the use of carbon dioxide in the drop, we must continue to maintain sales of the entire vehicle until 2030, which is difficult.

The ratio of the entire car in the country to our country's total carbon emissions accounts for more than 20% of the developed countries in the world. Although we do not have a large proportion, the carbon dioxide in our country’s life is high-carbon, so this plate is big. This is why we participate in the Paris Protocol and our plate is large. Although the percentage of cars is not large, the total amount of carbon dioxide emissions is large. And it is growing very fast, with growth almost doubled from 2005 to 2015. We made this prediction and considered almost all the links with the car's carbon emissions, including GDP, including per capita GDP. Per capita GDP forecast from per capita GDP. Because the ability to purchase cars increases as people's income rises. Forecast stocks, draw bases, forecast various carbon-related factors, and finally make a total forecast.

We have found a very important rule that in the past, when some countries developed cars, they developed in accordance with high carbon, such as the United Kingdom and the United States. Many countries, especially emerging automobile countries such as Japan and South Korea, have developed on a low-carbon route. And after the quantity of possession reached the country's reasonable holdings, carbon declined linearly. Our country, according to current predictions, by 2030, because we now have more than 140 people owned by thousands of people, not as good as Thailand's 150. Many people predict that by the year 2030, our 1,000-strong car ownership rate will reach 300, but in 2030 we must reach peak carbon and carbon should reach a peak. Such a model we can predict, after 2030 and 2030, what the trajectory of our country's automotive carbon emissions should be. This is what this model predicts.

Moreover, we have established seven first-level indicators and thirty-two second-level indicators for the entire evaluation of carbon emissions, and evaluated the entire system. The team at Tsinghua University did a lot of work. Combining this evaluation with the weights and the scoring of experts, we finally saw that China’s carbon emissions assessment is based on the fact that our country is now the world’s major automobile country, living behind the United States. Judging from the final results, we have concluded that by 2028 or 2030, total carbon emissions should be controlled at about 1.5 billion tons, and the proportion of carbon emissions from vehicles to the country’s total carbon emissions is roughly 12%. This is equivalent to 28% of the United States, because our plate is larger.

So how do you get the result of the prediction? First of all, it must rely on the law. Our country must establish carbon emission regulations. Now that gasoline vehicles, cars, and passenger vehicles have mandatory regulations for carbon dioxide emissions, commercial vehicles must also implement mandatory regulations. In the past, our country’s fuel consumption was only commercial, unlike emissions, which are mandatory. Now our country attaches great importance to carbon dioxide and has introduced the world's most stringent fuel consumption regulations. For example, sedans, our fuel consumption regulations have three thresholds. The first one is access, which cannot be accessed without meeting certain conditions. Your car cannot be sold. The second group’s carbon emissions must be controlled at a single level. If the third group cannot reach the limit, it must pay a fine. Now it can be said that the carbon dioxide regulation is the most stringent of all companies, whether it is commercial vehicles or cars, that can shut down your group. This reflects the importance our country attaches to, and the degree of carbon dioxide reduction. As can be seen from the map, the intensity is very large. From the third stage to the fourth stage to the fifth stage, the degree of reduction is very large, it is double-digit, and it has never been so strong. Regulations.

This is a price to pay. No matter what timetable is announced, the price must be paid. I also told everyone at TEDA's closed-door conference the day before yesterday that our car is B2C. We are a market economy. You sell products, meet carbon emission regulations, and earn money. You can't afford to sell it. The second is this product. The people can afford it. If ordinary people can't afford it, this product is useless. So two can withstand. Therefore, at various levels, we have measured how much money customers and the market are willing to pay to purchase this car with carbon dioxide or fuel consumption regulations. This is a set of estimates. And this calculation must take into account the return of its life cycle, TCO. For passenger cars, customers are only willing to pay the initial fuel purchase cost for three years. Finally, it is concluded that the cost of 0.1 liters of oil is what the manufacturer wants to achieve within this cost. The same is true in Europe.

We studied in detail the various stages of the future as the technology that the gasoline engine can achieve to achieve carbon dioxide emissions and meet the cost just now. Moreover, this technology, how to combine with the current new energy electrification, put forward the motorization of the engine, as well as the cost of the motorization of the engine and the potential for fuel economy, all of which are derived from the development, not worthy of estimation. . After FAW and FAW invested a lot of R&D in this area, Zhu always said that they had implemented nine projects. Did they also participate in the feedback of our experts? If they participated, they are also in our conclusions. .

The second is the electrification of the transmission, otherwise you put the motor in the engine, or put the motor in the transmission. The electrification of the transmission can bring strong hybrids and plug-in hybrids.

Pure electric, all of which have a reasonable contribution to each phase of fuel consumption regulations, this report is very clear. Three forms of fuel cells, the report conducted a preliminary study, that the full-power fuel cell engine, the carbon contribution is the most reasonable. Commercial vehicles, we talk about commercial vehicles are very difficult and very difficult. Commercial vehicles are to be implemented immediately after the third stage, followed by the fourth stage.

Moreover, commercial vehicles account for the proportion of carbon dioxide for fuel consumption. Our country’s commercial vehicles accounted for 53%. We have seen so many passenger vehicles accounted for 47%, so the report attaches great importance to the commercial vehicle's friendship. As Mr. Chen said just now, our dependence on foreign oil, 65%, was mostly drunk by commercial vehicles. The commercial vehicle report recommends a two-step walk. The first step is to achieve a thermal efficiency of 47%, because for commercial vehicles, the most important thing is to rely on the engine. There is not yet so big electric battery to solve the problem of commercial vehicles transported on highways. Low carbon problem. So you must rely on the engine. The first step is 47%, how much oil can be saved, and how the technical route will go depends mainly on the combustion of the engine. Mainly in three very important aspects, one is a combustion chamber, one is a common rail, and the other is a supercharger. It is very important that we must engage in a common rail with a variable oil spray rate. We must distribute well to achieve this level just now. Can such a fuel injection system be studied? I hereby announce to everyone that we have developed such a fuel injection system and that we have also obtained national patents. It is two tracks, one high pressure rail and one pressure rail. Through the combination of two rails, three different spray rates are generated through control.

There is also combustion. The most important thing is to reduce NOx and fuel consumption. This is also a patent. The third very important thing is the supercharger, which must have high efficiency at low speeds and high speeds. This is a dual-channel asymmetric supercharger. We have already developed it and we will soon have mass production.

The fourth stage is to be 50%, and the thermal efficiency of the diesel engine is to be 50%. What is the 50% technical route? The most important thing is the recovery of exhaust gas energy. Everyone knows that one third of a drop of oil in a fuel tank is an effective work, one third of exhaust gas is eliminated, and one third is cooled. Therefore, try to recover the exhaust gas energy. The pre-research of our system has also been completed, and it can have an effective efficiency of 2% to 4%, which is very good.

There must also be clean fuel, no more diesel. The engine or the engine, using natural gas, can significantly reduce carbon dioxide. Here to say that FAW is developing a 15-liter engine that has changed the past. In the past, the diesel engine was the basic type, and then burned the fuel and turned it into a natural gas engine. This time, this time, natural gas is a basic type, and diesel is a variant. This is Very big initiative.

With hybrid power, we can see that hybrids will have 7% to 10% of the future. This will be pursued in the future. The last one is to be smart, smart cars, especially intelligent formations, there are two intelligences, one is intelligent prediction, prediction of road prediction conditions, the other is the intelligent formation to reduce wind resistance, it will have very good results.

Finally, there are five proposals. First, we must establish a low-carbon automotive industry system. Now we must consider the industrial system. Now, like a dispersal, the entire automobile industry cannot be decarbonized. Therefore, we must study our China's low-carbon automotive industry system. The second is that energy and automobiles need to develop in a coordinated manner and cannot do their job. The third is to attach great importance to commercial vehicles, and now I think that we have overlooked commercial vehicles and we have to suffer big losses. Our commercial vehicles are very large. The fourth is to reduce carbon in the manufacturing process. The fifth is to promote the smart network to fuel economy. Intelligent network is not only entertaining, it should also be fuel-efficient.

We have formulated the concept of such a system, and we will do it from all aspects. What I would recommend here is that we must look at Toyota. Toyota has systematically laid out the low-carbon system of the car.

Another very important thing, from now on, we must begin to consider the future capping by 2030. We will serialize the forms of power forms, power platforms, and power of all kinds of cars. This project has made predictions for power platforms and is based on our country’s hatchback cars. , Sedan, SUVs, MPVs, and their targets for future carbon emissions should be analyzed in terms of power platforms and product series. From here, it can be seen that the disappearance of internal combustion engines is not the wrong thing and the internal combustion engine will be new. The form exists. My original article is called new power and new energy. We must pay very close attention to the development of the automotive industry with the goal of reducing carbon dioxide. With carbon dioxide as the target, if it is a pure internal combustion engine, we can achieve 110 grams of carbon. Next, according to the high-carbon electricity of China's power grid, 650 grams per kilowatt-hour of carbon dioxide is better. It was 720 grams in the past. We use PHEV, REV, and EV up to 95 grams. The world must have 95 grams of carbon in 2025 and 72 grams of carbon in 2030, that is, cars, 72 grams of carbon per kilometer. If our grid cannot go down and it cannot be like the international grid, our carbon cannot do it. Only like the international power grid is 268 grams of carbon dioxide per kilowatt-hour, to achieve 93.

The ultimate use of carbon dioxide in control, only rely on big data, the Internet, artificial intelligence. The project proposed such a vision and was highly valued by the Academy of Engineering. The Academy of Engineering turned this project into a mid-to-long-term project, which means that in the future we will construct a society with a habit of low-carbon behavior and low-carbon life. Low-carbon thinking, even low-carbon ethics, such an overall low-carbon society. All we have to do is to start from the starting point to the end point. How do we use the smart networking system of our country that has already been laid out to make every trip it takes is a low-carbon activity?

thank you all!